Orrery Resolution Risk

Source quality now matters more than price.

Resolving soon

Near expiry, small wording differences and source timing can dominate price action.

Market

Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?

Resolves in 9h.

Probability

3¢

24h volume

$22.00

Source path

to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jul 12, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Read the exact resolution rule before interpreting late moves.
  • 04Check event siblings for similar-but-not-identical contract wording.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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