Orrery Resolution Risk

Source quality now matters more than price.

Resolving soon

Near expiry, small wording differences and source timing can dominate price action.

Market

Will there be more than 14 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?

Resolves in 2h.

Probability

2¢

24h volume

$226.50

Source path

to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jul 5, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Read the exact resolution rule before interpreting late moves.
  • 04Check event siblings for similar-but-not-identical contract wording.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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