Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Illiquid

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

Probability

45¢

24h volume

$139.50

Source path

@realDonaldTrump

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jun 22, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
Create alertOpen marketPolymarket