Orrery Resolution Risk

Settlement is still pending.

UMA pending

Price can look final before UMA confirmation. Verify the source before treating it as outcome.

Market

Will Trump praise Sheikh Tamim al-Thani by July 31?

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Probability

100¢

24h volume

$2.1K

Source path

Statements from Donald Trump

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01UMA status: proposed
  • 02Expiry: Jul 31, 2026
  • 03Check whether UMA has proposed, disputed, or finalized the result.
  • 04Confirm the primary source named by the market rules.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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