Orrery Resolution Risk

Settlement is still pending.

UMA pending

Price can look final before UMA confirmation. Verify the source before treating it as outcome.

Market

Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Eighth War" during meeting with French President?

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Probability

40¢

24h volume

$344.75

Source path

rollcall.com

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01UMA status: proposed
  • 02Expiry: Jun 16, 2026
  • 03Check whether UMA has proposed, disputed, or finalized the result.
  • 04Confirm the primary source named by the market rules.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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