The market moved
+3.9ppin 24h · now 100¢
1-25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting?
Macro · resolves Dec 12 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 3.9pp shift. Resolution depends on ecb — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: ECB — https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.