Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?UMA DISPUTED
High
Evidence layerFor AI agents monitoring prediction markets · research only · not trade advice
Evidence for AI agents monitoring prediction markets.
Orrery is read-only. It turns Polymarket movement, whale flow, source context, and resolution risk into structured evidence agents can cite, monitor, and escalate. Verification-first by design: price is not settlement, large trade is not smart money, and every move needs a source check.
Price is not settlement.Large trade is not smart money.Same event is not the same contract.Source quality matters more near expiry.Agents need evidence, not opinions.
One evidence layer, many entry points
Agents are the wedge. The same source-aware evidence becomes useful to developers, analysts, journalists, teams, and publishers without changing Orrery into trade advice.
AI agentsPrimary wedgeStable evidence packets, source health, suggested next calls, and refusal-safe actions.Decision Cards + MCP + x402
DevelopersAPI entryA clean prediction-market evidence API instead of stitching raw odds, trades, sources, and risk checks.OpenAPI + free starter endpoints
AnalystsHuman workflowAttention queues, source checks, whale context, and resolution-risk screens before trusting a move.Scanner + Daily Brief + alerts
JournalistsNarrative proofCitable context for what moved, why it matters, and what is still unverified.Share cards + Markdown receipts
Research teamsB2B workflowShared watchlists, repeatable reviews, audit history, and source-aware handoffs.Team briefs + B2B API
NewslettersDistributionDaily market context that can be embedded without turning into trade advice.Daily Brief + shareable cards
World Cup modeJun 11-Jul 19, 2026 · research only · not trade advice
World Cup markets move fast. Orrery verifies the move before you trust the price.
Top movers, matchday brief, not-settled checks, and alerts for screenshots that need source, liquidity, and settlement context.
Tracked
Tracking
24h volume
$0.00
Lead move
Quiet
Orrery verifies prediction-market movement before you trust the price
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
ACTIVE VERIFICATION TARGET
Active target: top verification queue itemChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
99% 38.3pp
24h volume
$2.3M
Verification target99% current40-99% 7D range+29.8pp net move
100%80%59%39%18%
99%
Jul 2099%+29.8pp from start
Jul 13Jul 14Jul 15Jul 16Jul 17Jul 18Jul 19Jul 20
WHY THIS TARGET
Scoring M1
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
Ranked by evidence, liquidity, spread quality, resolution state, and whether related markets need comparison.
Source statusUMA DISPUTEDEvidence contextMIXED EVIDENCEMarket movement38.3ppLiquidity$2.3MNext checkReview dispute
EVIDENCE ACTIONS
All signals 1Watch only
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Queue proof
24h Δ -38.3pp, 1h Δ -0.3pp · Turnover 2.4× liquidity
2Watch only
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
24h Δ 27.2pp, 1h Δ 1.7pp · Turnover 4.4× liquidity
3Watch only
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
24h Δ -9.4pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 1.9× liquidity
4Watch only
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
24h Δ 22.0pp, 1h Δ 1.0pp · Turnover 1.3× liquidity
6Inspect timeline
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?
24h Δ -3.0pp · 1h Δ 1.1pp
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
High
Iasi Open: Mayar Sherif vs Paula BadosaPAST EVENT
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York YankeesPAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?PINNED NO
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?PINNED NO
Medium
Medium
Medium
Trump out as President by July 31?PINNED NO
Medium
Medium
Medium
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?PINNED NO
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
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Live Tape quiet — Orrery is still monitoring signals, whale-size flow, 1h moves, source updates, and resolution-state transitions.
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 95/86 90/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 92/76 88/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 95/80 76/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 87/77 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 72 | 51/79 98/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJuly 20, 2026
Read full brief - Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? probability down 38.3pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? resolves in 0h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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WATCHLIST DELTA
Watchlist sits in your browser — we don't store it server-side. Add markets you want to track, then this panel shows the since-last-visit delta for each.
Set up watchlist