2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 15% by March 31?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 10.1pp shift. Resolution depends on to the price scoring methodology of derivative — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the price scoring methodology of derivative — https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.