Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 10¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 3.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the listed player who wins the 2026 u — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the listed player who wins the 2026 U — https://www.pgatour.com/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 39.8h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.