2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 75% by March 31?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.4pp shift. Resolution depends on to the price scoring methodology of derivative — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the price scoring methodology of derivative — https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.