2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 1¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.