30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.8pp shift. Resolution depends on the data published up until that point — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the data published up until that point — https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.