5kt meteor strike in 2026?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 33¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.5pp shift. Resolution depends on department of defense — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Department of Defense — https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.