The market moved
-1.5ppin 24h · now 67¢
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by June 30, 2026?
Weather · resolves May 31 · vol $20.41
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 67¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the latest provided data — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: to the latest provided data — https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.