Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by October 31?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.5pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: NATO — https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/09/europe/poland-scramble-jets-russian-drone-reports-intl-hnk-ml.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.