The market moved
-1.5ppin 24h · now 19¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
Geopolitics · resolves Jan 1 · vol $3.3K
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 19¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.5pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.