The market moved
+1.0ppin 24h · now 7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?
Geopolitics · resolves Jun 22 · vol $7.9K
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 7¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.