Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/m_ref/mref240731a.pdf).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.