Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 5¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 26.4pp shift. Resolution depends on to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the september 2026 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 — https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.