Biden nominated by July 21?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 0¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on bloomberg — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: bloomberg — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-01/democrats-weigh-early-biden-nomination-to-squash-talk-of-a-swap).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.