Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2PM ET

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 49.5pp shift. Resolution depends on binance spot pair — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

Resolution status: proposed — verify before treating this as news.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Binance spot pair — https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• UMA resolution status is "proposed". Source-risk is non-trivial — a move that unwinds on settlement isn't really news.