The market moved
-17.5ppin 24h · now 33¢
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 16?
Crypto · resolves Jul 16 · vol $24.3K
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 33¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 17.5pp shift. Resolution depends on binance spot pair — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Binance spot pair — https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 18.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.