The market moved

+31.0ppin 24h · now 75¢

California High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition

Politics · resolves Nov 3 · vol $1.4K

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 75¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 31.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.