The market moved
+0.5ppin 24h · now 16¢
Canada recession before 2027?
Macro · resolves Dec 31 · vol $12.50
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 16¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on gdp release — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: GDP release — https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm).
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.