The market moved
+8.0ppin 24h · now 26¢
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
Geopolitics · resolves Dec 31 · vol $938.91
Why
Probability rose decisively up to 26¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 8.0pp shift. Resolution depends on united nations — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: United Nations.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.