Will the match end in a draw?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 21¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.5pp shift. Resolution depends on official statistics — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: official statistics — https://www.espncricinfo.com/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.