Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5)

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 30¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 10.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://hltv.org.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 5.3h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.