The market moved

-14.0ppin 24h · now 35¢

Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)

Sports · resolves May 15 · vol $1.8K

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 35¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 14.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://hltv.org.
  • Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • Market resolves in 18.2h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.