Will David Raum be in Germany's Starting 11?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 20¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 32.5pp shift. Resolution depends on fifa.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: fifa.com — https://www.fifa.com/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 33.8h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.