Did a propellant leak cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 44¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.cbsnews.com/news/blue-origin-new-glenn-rocket-explodes-launchpad-florida/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.