The market moved

-12.5ppin 24h · now 36¢

Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on July 14?

Macro · resolves Jul 14 · vol $790.57

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 36¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 12.5pp shift. Resolution depends on wall street journal — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • Market resolves in 2.8h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.