Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 57¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 35.5pp shift. Resolution depends on polymarket post counter (tracker) — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Polymarket Post Counter (tracker) — https://xtracker.polymarket.com.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 31.0h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.