Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 10¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on polymarket post counter (tracker) — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Polymarket Post Counter (tracker) — https://xtracker.polymarket.com.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 46.2h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.