The market moved

+35.0ppin 24h · now 100¢

Empire State couple charged by July 4?

Politics · resolves Jul 4 · vol $2.1K

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 35.0pp shift. Resolution depends on official government information — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: Official government information — https://abc7ny.com/post/2-people-climb-top-empire-state-building-pro-peace-banner/19429181/.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • Market resolves in 19.6h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.