Ethereum Up or Down - August 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 4¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 46.5pp shift. Resolution depends on the twap chainlink data stream for the asset pair eth/usd, not according to any other sources or spot markets — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets — https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 0.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.