Ethereum Up or Down on August 4?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 69¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 18.5pp shift. Resolution depends on binance spot pair — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Binance spot pair — https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 0.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.