Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bp cut" favored on Monday?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.4pp shift. Resolution depends on by examining the 4-hour window between 10:00 am et and 1:59 pm et on monday, november 24, 2025 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: by examining the 4-hour window between 10:00 AM ET and 1:59 PM ET on Monday, November 24, 2025 — https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.