Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 19¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 17.5pp shift. Resolution depends on official statistics — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: official statistics.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 5.6h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.