Funding lapse without government shutdown?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 13.5pp shift. Resolution depends on us government — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: US government — https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.