Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.4pp shift. Resolution depends on data.giss.nasa.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: data.giss.nasa.gov — https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.