The market moved
+0.0ppin 24h · now 39¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on August 9?
Weather · resolves Aug 9 · vol $49.79
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 39¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on the highest temperature recorded in the 'daily observations' table on weather underground, not the figure displayed in t — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in t — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 46.4h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.