Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 12?

Why

Probability rose decisively up to 47¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 7.5pp shift. Resolution depends on wunderground.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: wunderground.com — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 0.8h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.