The market moved
+3.5ppin 24h · now 45¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 5?
Weather · resolves Aug 5 · vol $1.4K
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 45¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 3.5pp shift. Resolution depends on weather.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: weather.gov — https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 16.6h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.