The market moved
-4.2ppin 24h · now 1¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 11?
Weather · resolves Jul 11 · vol $981.78
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 1¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.2pp shift. Resolution depends on weather.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: weather.gov — https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 6.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.