Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 15?

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 4¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 6.3pp shift. Resolution depends on weather.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: weather.gov — https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 25.4h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.