The market moved
+4.0ppin 24h · now 22¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 8?
Weather · resolves Jun 8 · vol $195.49
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 22¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 4.0pp shift. Resolution depends on weather.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: weather.gov — https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 13.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.