The market moved
+19.5ppin 24h · now 93¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 4?
Weather · resolves Jun 4 · vol $463.94
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 93¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 19.5pp shift. Resolution depends on wunderground.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: wunderground.com — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 29.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.