Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 13?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 2¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.6pp shift. Resolution depends on wunderground.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: wunderground.com — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 7.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.