The market moved
+11.9ppin 24h · now 20¢
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on July 4?
Weather · resolves Jul 4 · vol $982.08
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 20¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 11.9pp shift. Resolution depends on wunderground.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: wunderground.com — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 20.6h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.