Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on August 7?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 38¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.5pp shift. Resolution depends on the highest temperature recorded in the 'daily observations' table on weather underground, not the figure displayed in t — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in t — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 1.7h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.